worldbuilding: I need an economist...

[kaigou]

or a philosopher, or a historian.

Okay, the theories on world population control are pretty diverse, and as far as I know, China is the only country (so far) to actually attempt some kind of a major population control. In contrast, Japan's population is holding steady and/or decreasing minutely, as a result of the economic pressures and social changes resulting in people waiting longer to have children, having fewer children, and some folks not bothering at all.

But here are the primary situations facing the worldbuilding experiment I'm working on:

1. the population is significantly higher than the resources can support
2. the government (secular) has been forced to institute controls on the birth rate
3. for various reasons, a significant # of the population is sterile

Without sitting down and figuring out numbers, I'm postulating that if the death rate continues at a steady pace (barring sudden natural disasters and war), it's still too low to balance out the birth rate against the actual population. So, more deaths required, fewer births allowed, until the population reaches a point that's feasible and manageable against the number of resources.

China, currently, has a huge number of baby girls up for adoption, who have been abandoned to the government's care. Part of the feasibility of doing this is that there are other countries who have resources/room for the children. If, however, that were not an option, I'd think the government would be forced to clamp down harder, rather than have the burden of unwanted children shifted onto them. I do know that a Chinese friend told me that although she's a Chinese citizen, she may have as many children as she wants (especially while out of the country, and it helps that she's educated middle-class for China). The clincher is not that her children will be forcibly removed, but that if she returns to China with her two sons, she will lose all health insurance/support, education options, etc, for her second child. As far as the government would be concerned, her second child simply would not exist; China's cost of living is apparently quite high in contrast to possible incomes, so the cost makes such an option completely out of the question for 99.9% of the population. (I'm disregarding, of course, the issue of minorities being exempt from this rule, as well as the fact that my friend could have two sons because she was outside China when they were born and thus out from under the government's control.)

What are the theories on overpopulation? Would such a situation result in anarchy? I've posited a lottery setup for potential parents taking their turn at a chance to have children - "this year, seventy-three children can be born; seventy-three fertile couples will have a chance to concieve; those who cannot will be removed from the lotteries and the unborn # added to next year's lottery". Might a black market situation where the mafia hires itself out to slaughter/destroy large neighborhoods in hopes of introducing more deaths to raise the # of parental couples selected in the lottery? I can't think of any historical examples of such, to demonstate that such callous disregard could occur on the level required, if the proportion were greater than one to one, say, five deaths for every birth. CP has pointed out that even now, we have a recurring pattern of negligence for the elderly - cutting back medicare, attempting to privatize social security - and wouldn't the same possibly occur for those people ranked as 'neutrals' (sterile by birth, drug exposure or malnutrition)? That would shift the gender wars dramatically: male, female, neutral, based solely on one's ability to reproduce. If someone were determined to be neutral and infertile, would this create a second-class citizenship? Is there any historical example of situations where this has occured? I'm thinking of the mulattos and quatroons in Louisiana, where recognition of black ancestry was enough to drop one on the social scale, but it's not like you can look at a person and know they're fertile or infertile.

Glad to hear any/all speculation.

This world-building stuff is kinda fun.

Comments

[solitude1056.livejournal.com]

Yep. I did my thesis on Native American nonprofits, and in the course of picking that, came across a number of case studies (mostly anecdotal) about forced sterilization. Going to the clinic for just about any type of surgery (or even none at all, but being put under nonetheless), and many women discovered after the fact - then, or much later - that they'd been sterilized. Rampant abuse of a population that's just heart-rending and horrendous.

I'm aware of the theories behind eugenics. I wonder what it would change if the population is that much over the top. I am aware that posited along with excessive population are certain side effects - lower birth weight, higher malnutrition, illnesses, all sorts of bad things that come from not enough resources to feed a population that's squeezed into really tight spots. With nature so randomly creating sections of the population unable to bear children (and the military's drugs and drug testing doing its share, as well - think the speed they currently give fighter pilots) - I can't see there being a huge push to narrow the population *further* except by those potential parents desperate to up their own chances. If the majority of the population has, by birth or accident, become 'neutral', there's two ways to go: either the minority/fertile rules over a second-class majority, or the majority/neutral rules over a second-class breeding population.

Odd, hunh. I do know there have been holes poked in Malthus' theories, but I guess we'll have to wait until habibti signs on and we can hear the economic end of things.